August 13, 2008

Sailing for Gold

           Excellence and average are normally words that do not fit together. But in the 2008 Olympic sailing competition a strong average finish in each race will ultimately equate to excellence on the racecourse.

           In Athens, the 11 classes in sailing held 126 individual races that were won by 76 different teams. This trend is continuing in Qingdao, China, the Olympic venue for sailing. After four days of racing, 14 different countries are currently scored in a medal position.

           Every race is up for grabs. But the capricious winds off the city's waterfront are difficult to read and predict. At this point in the sailor's training, most of the top boats are sailing at the same speed, so taking advantage of the wind shifts and velocity puffs is the deciding factor everyone is looking to find. Unfortunately, the shifts and puffs seem to arrive in random patterns. The question is how do you stay consistently in front? The answer is sailing for a good average.

           Historically, Olympic sailors are very aggressive on the water. They take chances. In the past the point system favored aggressiveness. Today you receive one point for each boat you beat. In most classes a fifth place average will earn you a medal and likely a gold. On Tuesday in the women's single-handed class, American Anna Tunnicliffe placed 4th and 5th. At the end of the day she was leading. The key for Tunnicliffe and, in fact, all competitors, is to keep a fifth place average.

           Tactically, this requires sailing close to the bulk of the fleet, and not taking big chances by splitting away from the fleet. Flyers in sailing rarely pay off. Before the Games, I talked with U.S. Finn sailor Zach Railey about his strategy. He said that if he finds himself in 17th he will just worry about getting to 16th. Once there he will work on 15th and so on. It is a very mature philosophy for a 24 year old. Railey's plan is working so far, as he stands second, just one point behind reigning Great Britain's reigning Olympic gold-medalist Ben Ainslie.

           You can be sure both the sailors and their coaches will recognize this trend. There will be lots of conservatism on the racecourse. Luck will propel individual boats to win single races, but finding a way to recover from unfavorable wind shifts, dead zones, or even algae patches is paramount to winning. Even though the winds have been predictable light so far, these races are making for great theater. The stakes are high, everyone is giving it all, and in the end a good average will spell excellence.